顶级投资人 雷·达里奥 作品《原则》17- 第二章 如何设计解决方案

把设定的目标或阻碍目标实现的问题都形象化,再提供形象的实际解决办法。

4) Designing the Plan (Determining the Solutions)

4)设计方案(决定解决方案)

In some cases, you might go from setting goals to designing the plans that will get you to these goals; while in other cases, you will encounter problems on the way to your goals and have to design your way around them. So design will occur at both stages of the process, though it will occur much more often in figuring out how to get around problems. In other words, most of the movement toward your goals comes from designing how to remove the root causes of your problems. Problems are great because they are very specific impediments, so you know that you will move forward if you can identify and eliminate their root causes.

某些情况下,你从目标设定、设计解决方案到一步步走向目标,在另外一些情况,你在通往目标的途中遇到了问题,然后要设计方案去解决它们。两种情况都需要设计方案,更多时候是需要找出如何解决问题。换句话说,通往目标的路上,我们做的无非是按照设计,消除产生问题的根本原因。问题是很棒的东西,因为问题是非常具体的障碍物。一旦发现问题并解决了,就能朝前迈进。

Creating a design is like writing a movie script in that you visualize who will do what through time in order to achieve the goal.

方案设计和写电影剧本一样,形象化地描述在规定时间内为实现目标需要做哪些事。

Visualize the goal or problem standing in your way, and then visualize practical solutions. When designing solutions, the objective is to change how you do things so that problems don’t recur—or recur so often. Think about each problem individually, and as the product of root causes—like the outcomes produced by a machine. Then think about how the machine should be changed to produce good outcomes rather than bad ones. There are typically many paths toward achieving your goals, and you need to find only one of them that works, so it’s almost always doable.

把设定的目标或阻碍目标实现的问题都形象化,再提供形象的实际解决办法。设计解决方案时,目的是改变你做事的方式,防止错误再次出现,或者没有出现得那么频繁。独立地思考每个问题,把问题视为某个根本原因的产出物,就像从一台“机器”产出的东西一样。然后再想想怎样改进机器,使之生产合格的产品。实现目标的路径很多,找出一条行得通,可操作的就好。

But an effective design requires thinking things through and visualizing how things will come together and unfold over time. It’s essential to visualize the story of where you have been (or what you have done) that has led you to where you are now and what will happen sequentially in the future to lead you to your goals. You should visualize this plan through time, like watching a movie that connects your past, present, and future.

有效的方案设计需要把问题想透,能形象化描述事情的来源起因和未来发展方向。关键是要能跟讲故事一样,形象化地描述整个过程,从你来自何处(或你做过什么),到你现在的情况, 以及未来发展如何,一直到实现目标。整个方案要随着时间轴日益具体形象化,就像看一部记录了你过去,现在和未来的电影一样。

Then write down the plan so you don’t lose sight of it, and include who needs to do what and when. The list of tasks falls out from this story (i.e., the plan), but they are not the same. The story, or plan, is what connects your goals to the tasks. For you to succeed, you must not lose sight of the goals or the story while focusing on the tasks; you must constantly refer back and forth. In My Management Principles (Part 3), you can see one such plan.

然后把设计方案写下来,保证自己能随时看到。方案设计包括谁要在什么时候做什么。具体任务清单是根据设计方案设置的,但任务和方案又不尽相同,方案设计将你的目标同具体任务关联起来。想要成功,在关注具体任务的同时,就一定不能忽视目标或方案。要记得不断反复前后查看。在第三章我的管理原则中,你会看到这样一个方案。

When designing your plan, think about the timelines of various interconnected tasks. Sketch them out loosely and then refine them with the specific tasks. This is an iterative process, alternating between sketching out your broad steps (e.g., hire great people) and filling these in with more specific tasks with estimated timelines (e.g., in the next two weeks choose the headhunters to find the great people) that will have implications (e.g., costs, time, etc.). These will lead you to modify your design sketch until the design and tasks work well together. Being as specific as possible (e.g., specifying who will do what and when) allows you to visualize how the design will work at both a big-picture level and in detail. It will also give you and others the to-do lists and target dates that will help direct you.

设计方案时,思考各种相关联的任务的时间次序,在纸上粗略地写个大概,再用具体任务补充完善。这是个反复的过程,粗略描绘宏观大方向(例如:聘请优秀的员工)和往框架内填充具体任务的过程中交替反复,这些具体的任务要估算大概时间(例如:未来两周内选猎头公 司帮忙物色优秀人才),还要考虑因此带来的影响(例如:成本,时间等)。通过不断完善, 设计方案草图和具体任务会相得益彰充实起来。尽可能做到具体(例如:明确谁在什么时候 做什么),这样你的设计方案从宏观布局到细枝末节都会显得十分形象化。方案里也会明确任务清单和任务完成时间,为工作指明方向。

Of course, not all plans will accomplish everything you want in the desired time frame. In such cases, it is essential that you look at what won’t be accomplished and ask yourself if the consequences are acceptable or unacceptable. This is where perspective is required, and discussing it with others can be critical. If the plan will not achieve what’s necessary in the required time, so that the consequences have an unacceptably high probability of preventing you from achieving your goal, you have to either think harder (probably with the advice of other believable people) to make the plan do what is required or reduce your goals.

在预期时间框架下,并不是所有的计划都能完成,关键是关注无法完成的任务,问自己这个结果是否可以接受。这时就需要集思广益了,同他人展开探讨至关重要。如果无法在规定时间内完成必须完成的任务,后果极有可能阻碍你实现最终目标,这时就得绞尽脑汁想想(可能需要其他值得信赖之人的建议)怎么样调整方案,使得任务能够得以完成,或者你也可以降低目标难度。

People successful with this stage have an ability to visualize and a practical understanding of how things really work. Remember, you don’t have to possess all these qualities if you have someone to help you with the ones you are missing.

要顺利完成这个步骤,需要具备形象化的能力,并且能务实地理解什么工作能起作用。记住,如果有人帮你,你不必完全具备这些能力。

• How good is your ability to visualize?

你想象的能力如何?

• How confident are you that your assessment of your ability to visualize is accurate?

你对自己在想象能力方面的自我评估有几分信心?

If you are confident of your self-assessment, why should you be confident (e.g. do have an excellent track record of visualizing and making what you visualized happen, have other believable parties told you that you are good at this)?

如果你对自我评估很有信心,为什么自信呢?是因为有过往业绩吗,还是值得信赖之人告 诉过你?

Remember: Designing precedes doing! The design will give you your to-do list (i.e., the tasks).

记住:方案设计要在具体行动之前!方案设计会列出具体的工作任务。

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